House price triggers this autumn
Thu 03 Sep 2026
After a summer of weak prices, the debate about what will happen this autumn is already in full swing. As ever it’s not an easy one to call. Rampant house price growth is over, but will we see the traditional autumn bounce or will the market be more restrained?
August saw newly listed property prices drop by 2% over the month, according to Rightmove, with average prices 1% lower than a year ago. Nationwide’s August house price index showed subdued growth, up 1.6% annually and 0.2% month-on-month.
Several factors could affect how prices behave in the coming weeks and the market will be watching closely.
Inflation
Inflation continues to be impacted by higher energy costs and the conflict in the Middle East, with inflation hitting 2.9% in July and a further rise possible at the next announcement on 16 September. Energy price pressures remain and will likely be joined by higher food prices as the impact of the summer heatwaves on food products takes effect.
Mortgage rates
Mortgage rates have fluctuated throughout the year thanks to volatility in swap rates and remain higher than before the Middle East conflict. In late August, the average two-year fixed rate hit 5.11% according to Rightmove, leaving affordability stretched for many and those who don’t need to move urgently pressing pause on their moving plans.
Interest rate
Although the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee has chosen to hold interest rates at 3.75% since its December 2025 meeting, time could be running out before a rate rise materialises. The next meeting is on 17 September and current consensus is that the Bank of England will hold interest rates again, perhaps waiting until after the Autumn Budget to see how the market and consumers react.
The Autumn Budget
The Autumn Budget on 28 October will be the first under new Prime Minister Andy Burnham and the first from new Chancellor John Healey. Stamp duty changes had long been muted; however, in July Burnham confirmed there would be no change within the Autumn Budget, although longer-term property tax reform has not been ruled out.
Other tax revamps are likely, however. Changes to capital gains or inheritance taxes could affect buyers and sellers and, until the picture is clearer, both may hold off.
Supply/demand
The market continues to be a buyer’s market, with the most properties available for sale in August since 2014, according to Rightmove’s August house price index. With many sellers desperate to sell, buyers can continue to push prices down and are negotiating hard to get the deal they want.
Regional differences
Regional differences have dominated house price growth throughout 2026 and are becoming even more pronounced as prices in the north and in Scotland continue to rise, up 1.5% and 1.1% year--on-year respectively, according to Rightmove. Meanwhile, in the south of England, house prices are down 1.8% and in London they are down 3.1%.
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